80220172 (Uncertainty Analysis of Electrical Power System)

Course Name: Uncertainty Analysis of Electrical Power System

Course Number: 80220172

Program: Graduate program

Type: Elective

Credits: 2

Term Offered: Fall

Prerequisite(s): Probability and Statistics, Power System Analysis

Instructor(s): Zongxiang Lu


Self-compiled handouts.


George J. Anders. Probability Concepts in Electric Power Systems. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1990.

Tim Bedford, Roger Cooke. Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge University Press: 2001.

Yongji Guo, Principle of Reliability Engineering, Tsinghua University Press: 2002(in Chinese).

Course Description:

The course is about the principle of uncertainty analysis of power system, making students to understand the uncertainty characteristics of power system and the application of probabilistic method in power system analysis and design.

Course Objectives and Outcomes:

Numbers in brackets are linked to department educational outcomes.

1.Students could understand the main uncertainty characterizes of power system. [1, 2, 3]

2.Students could master the application of probabilistic method in power flow calculation, short-circuit calculation and stability analysis of power system. [5, 6, 10, 11]

3.Students could learn the basic principle of electrical power system reliability engineering, including system reliability model and theoretical evaluation method. [1, 3, 5, 10]

4.Students could be trained to have ability of literature survey and academic presentation. [10, 11]

Course Topics:

1.Overview of the uncertainty of power system

2.Fundamentals of probability theory and system engineer

3.Failure models and reliability functions

4.Markov Chain

5.Monte-Carlo simulation method

6.Reliability analysis of un-repairable system

7.Reliability analysis of repairable system

8.Probabilistic power flow

9.Probabilistic risk evaluation of bulk power system – part I: adequacy assessment

10.Probabilistic risk evaluation of bulk power system – part II: security evaluation

11.The principle of coordination of reliability and economy of a system

12.Probabilistic voltage stability evaluation of power system

13.Reliability issues in maintenance of electrical devices


Experiment(s): Numerical experiments, which is the entitled as projects as follows.


Survey of blackout over the world

 Understand the basic proceeding of blackout and find out the uncertainty characters of power system.

Report review the basic principle and the front edge of Monte-Carlo simulation method

 Master the basic steps to apply the Monte-Carlo method to solve a practical problem in power system

Academic presentation about any idea of the uncertainty of power system

Learn to think the application of probabilistic method in some aspect of power system analysis and present fairly the opinion to other classmate.

Course Assessment:

  There are three parts of assessment in this course.

Part I: Homework measures. 20 points.

Part II: Academic presentation about uncertainty of power system. 30 points.

Part III: Final exam score. 50 points.